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And many US firms, especially in tech, still have on their payrolls a glut of workers who were brought on during the pandemic, when there was a small hiring boom. That could also help explain the lack of new vacancies.
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But the note cautioned against treating AI as an “immediate fiscal windfall.” Before productivity fully kicks in, governments face upfront costs that could strain budgets already burdened by post-pandemic debt. Government spending explicitly earmarked for AI remains modest—often only a fraction of a percent of GDP—but a sea of hidden costs could make the transition much more difficult for budgets to handle.